Noe Valley Market Update – March 2020
The Two Housing Markets
If we look at the market for condos and the market for single family homes as two separate markets, we see a trend: condos are in, single family homes…less so. The median sales price (MSP) of single family homes is actually up 7.33% since February of 2019, but if we look at February 2020 over February 2018, the MSP is down 5.29%. This makes sense, since February 2018 was one of the two peaks in MSP for single family homes over the last ten years.
Condos, on the other hand, are up 8.84% since February 2019 and up 19.86% since February 2018. Condos are 20% less expensive than their single family cousins, which may be inspiring buyers to seek them out.
Inventory and Demand
The number of overall active listings perked up from January to February. That said, since February of 2018, the number of active listings of single family homes is down 10.49% and that of condos is down 14.31%. The number of pending sales of single family homes is down 17.09% since February of 2018. We can find some comfort in the fact that the number of pending sales of single family homes has not varied by more than 9% in any one year since 2015, and this continues to be the case. The number of pending sales of condos, on the other hand, is only down 2% since February 2018—perhaps further testament to the lower MSP of condos.
Demand is not the problem in our market. (After all, who wouldn’t want to live in San Francisco?) The percent of new listings sold solidifies this fact: in February of this year, 76.67% of new listings of all residential properties were pending. Last year came close to this number, but 2020 takes the cake. This is a good sign despite the decrease of 8.66% in the number of overall pending sales since February of 2018.
As we would expect, the months supply of inventory (MSI) reflects the same story. The average number of days on market for single family homes has increased 9.09% since February 2019, and that of condos has dipped 22.86%. The percent of list price received and the number of properties sold over list price also show single family homes down and condos up.
What Does This Mean for Prospective Buyers and Sellers?
If this were any other February, we would check in with historical precedents. However, this is not any other February. It is impossible to truly predict how the market will respond to the current health situation. The most responsible guidance we can offer is a promise to provide information as it becomes available. Feel free to call your agent. Stay safe, and be well.